Space advertising has been on the minds of every marketer on the planet since the Apollo era, but no one has realized it. A new study suggests that a billboard-like constellation of about 50 satellites, costing $65 million in total, could broadcast ads to every corner of the Earth for months – and potentially make money by doing it.
Of course, just because they could does not mean that they should. But let’s focus on the first one for now.
The study, by Russian researchers from the Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology (Skoltech) and the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (MIPT), presents a pretty compelling case that is bolstered by the recent controversy around SpaceX’s highly visible Starlink satellites.
The paper’s proposal is to send a constellation of about 50 satellites to a volume of 12U CubeSat – think the size of a full paper grocery bag. The satellites would enter a sun-synchronous orbit, which means they will always be in direct sunlight as they pass around the Earth.
Once in orbit, they would deploy large parabolic reflectors that would bounce sunlight back to Earth. These could be tilted to better present sunlight to a target area over which they pass, and from the ground there would appear to be a cluster of stars moving in synchrony for a period of perhaps three to five minutes. (To be clear, the image at the top is just for illustration – it would look much darker in reality.)
The 50 satellites could rearrange themselves into patterns, from letters to simple graphics — not quickly, but quickly enough that the shape could change over their visibility time or change advertisers between target cities. They would de-orbit after 1-3 months, depending on several factors. I’ve asked the researchers for clarification on battery life, display time, and a few other details and will update this post if I get a response.
Diagram of a satellite’s reflective footprint and examples (an Olympic logo and the Eiffel Tower) of potential displays. Picture credits: Skoltech/MIPT
The physical possibility of doing so does not seem at all far-fetched given the visibility of existing satellites in these orbits and the precision with which they can already be laid out. Thus, having established this, a good part of the article is devoted to an economic analysis. After all, we probably could have launched a Nike logo into space in the 90s (and there were attempts) if the world had rallied around it…but why would they? It has to make financial sense.
The cost of the mission is estimated at $65 million, most of which goes to manufacturing the 50 satellites ($48.7 million), then testing, support and engineering ($11.5 million). dollars), and of course at launch ($4.8 million). That sounds pretty reasonable in theory.
But that gets a little fuzzy in revenue estimates. A complicated equation to determine which cities, regions and times of the year would make more money suggests that winter offers the best return on investment. You might think: but people stay indoors during the winter. Yes, but not in the tropics and much of South and Southeast Asia, where winter brings longer nights but nothing like the bad weather of northern latitudes. And it just so happens that some of the most densely populated cities in the world are located there.
Images showing potential configurations of satellites in Olympic rings and Eiffel Tower shapes. Picture credits: Skoltech/MIPT
Their most optimistic estimate puts the net revenue at around $111 million, over three months and 24 screens, which equates to around $4.6 million per ad. The Super Bowl commercials cost more and are only 30 seconds long – although of course they are in 4K and color with sound. But the money and appetite for publicity stunts is definitely there.
The most important question is, does anyone want to see ads in the sky? Almost certainly not. While the novelty of a satellite display might briefly amaze some, that display forming the Pepsi logo — or more likely, Crypto.com or something like that — could quickly turn into disgust. “Is that? A lousy advertisement?” if you will.
It would be a huge reputation gamble: the first company to place its ads among the stars. Sure, we’ve had sponsored content and logos on the International Space Station, but that’s different. When you see the ISS pass overhead, it does not flash “SNICKERS SATISFIES” in Morse code towards you.
The Skoltech and MIPT study is likely something that has been speculated internally by many companies that have considered the possibility for years. The idea that the whole operation might actually make money, however, is a relatively new development; even five years ago the numbers might not have worked. And remember that this is only one approach to the problem – others may come to different conclusions.
Will we soon see advertisements in the stars? Unlikely, but anything profitable tends to happen sooner or later in this crazy, crazy world of ours, so don’t be surprised if you hear of attempts. Maybe we’ll ban it — but who has jurisdiction? Or maybe the launch companies will decline – but do they want to be put in that position? It’s a weird and very sci-fi possibility, but so is much of what’s happening these days.
The full document is available to read here.
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