Future Champions Festival preview for the Fillies’ Mile and Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket

Big weekend for Kingman’s classy two-year-olds

In an article back in August, I wrote how Kingman’s current crop of two-year-olds had the potential to be his best yet, a group headed by the Charlie Appleby-trained Noble Style and featuring several once-raced winners who came into the ‘could-be-anything’ category.

Even Noble Style had only won a couple of novice events at Ascot and Newmarket at that stage of the campaign. He then confirmed that promise by making it three from three with a decisive victory in the Gimcrack Stakes at York, asserting late on to beat Marshman by a length and a quarter.

That performance earned Noble Style a Timeform rating of 119p – only Little Big Bear (126p) is rated higher among the best two-year-olds we’ve seen so far this season – but sadly he hasn’t had the opportunity to push his rating higher still since the Gimcrack.

Neither will he, it seems, at least between now and the end of the season. A bout of colic ruled him out of last month’s Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket, a serious enough setback that a return to action in Saturday’s Dewhurst Stakes at the same course evidently wasn’t an option.

Given that Kingman is yet to sire a two-year-old Group One winner, Noble Style’s absence from the major juvenile prizes this autumn would probably have been a devastating blow to his prospects of breaking his duck in any other year.

However, it underlines just how much strength in depth there is among Kingman’s current crop of two-year-olds that he will still be represented by a leading contender for the Dewhurst in the shape of Nostrum, not to mention the odds-on favourite for Friday’s bet365 Fillies’ Mile (15:35).

Commissioning looks a class apart from her rivals

The Fillies’ Mile has the makings of a one-horse race on paper, such was the impression Commissioning created when easily winning the Rockfel Stakes at the same course last month.

Two months on from a striking debut win on the July Course, Commissioning once again displayed a smart turn of foot as she dismissed a big field in the Rockfel, hitting the front over a furlong out and quickly forging clear from there to land the spoils by two and three-quarter lengths (replay below).

A tall, rather unfurnished filly, Commissioning went through a growing spurt and needed a bit of time after her debut success according to John Gosden, who was initially reluctant to commit to the Fillies’ Mile given the quick turnaround.

Any doubts surrounding her participation were erased when her name featured among the eight declarations on Wednesday, though, and it looks a remarkably straightforward opportunity for a filly having her first start at the top level, probably just needing to reproduce her Rockfel form to come out on top.

For context, she is at least 13 lb clear of the other seven runners on Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings, headed by Polly Pott, a surprise 40/1 winner of the May Hill Stakes at Doncaster last time, and Sparkling Beauty, who was last seen filling the runner-up spot in Prix du Calvados at Deauville in August.

It’s fair to say that neither filly possesses the star quality that Commissioning does, an exciting prospect who could be just what Kingman needs to consolidate his position among Europe’s elite in the stallion ranks after a couple of quieter years – a Group One-winning two-year-old with the potential to make an impact in the classics next spring.

Nostrum – Group One juvenile or next year’s horse?

There is little doubt that Nostrum will be a serious candidate for next year’s 2000 Guineas, but the big question with him is whether he has the raw talent to win a Group One at two or whether Saturday’s Darley Dewhurst Stakes (15:00) will come too soon in his development.

Training horses to peak as two-year-olds certainly wouldn’t be the modus operandi of Sir Michael Stoute, a man famed for his patient approach.

It’s perhaps telling that it’s been nearly four decades since Ajdal provided Stoute with his sole victory in the Dewhurst in 1986, while Red Bloom, who won the Fillies’ Mile in 2003, was his last horse to win a Group One in Britain which was restricted to two-year-olds.

In the last decade, Stoute has saddled only six runners in such races, including Expert Eye, who finished last of the nine runners when sent off the 7/4-on favourite for the 2017 Dewhurst, and Sangarius, who was found out by inexperience when finishing fourth behind Too Darn Hot the following year.

A homebred in the Juddmonte silks – like Kingman, Expert Eye and Sangarius before him – the unbeaten Nostrum has already achieved more than most juveniles from his yard having run out a comfortable winner of last month’s Tattersalls Stakes, a Group Three run over the same course and distance as the Dewhurst (replay below).

The worry is that Nostrum still looked very much in need of the experience on that occasion as he wandered and briefly ran green after being produced to lead inside the final three furlongs.

He was ultimately well on top at the line, beating the useful Holloway Boy by a length and a quarter, but any chinks in his armour are more likely to be exposed in these deeper waters.

Sakheer and Chaldean set the standard

After all, this looks potentially an above-average renewal of the Dewhurst – even in the absence of Little Big Bear and Noble Style – with Mill Reef winner Sakheer and Acomb/Champagne winner Chaldean heading the opposition to Nostrum on Timeform’s figures.

Sakheer was supplemented on Monday and certainly looks capable of holding his own at the top level judged on his victory in the Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury where he overcame a steep rise in grade in convincing fashion. He was simply a class apart from some useful rivals, powering clear in the final furlong to win by three and a half lengths (replay below).

Bought for €550,000 at the breeze-ups earlier this year, Sakheer is clearly blessed with plenty of speed, but he has a pedigree which suggests he’ll stay further than six furlongs (by Zoffany and a half-brother to a horse who showed smart form over an extended nine furlongs).

Whether he has the classic potential of a horse like Nostrum is open to more debate, but that’s an argument which can wait for another day.

This Group One is all about the here and now and, crucially, the impression Sakheer created in winning at Newbury suggests he is a juvenile hitting his peak at just the right time. He must be considered a very worthy favourite.

Chaldean is another who looks well equipped to cope with this test if the Juddmonte team decide they want a second string to their bow.

This one is a son of Kingman’s studmate, Frankel, who won this race back in 2010 but is yet to sire the winner, though he has been responsible for two of the last three winners of the Fillies’ Mile in the shape of Quadrilateral (2019) and Inspiral (2021).

Bought for 550,000 guineas as a foal, Chaldean has gone a long way to justifying that lofty price tag with three successive wins since being beaten on his debut, culminating with a three-and-half-length victory in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster last month (replay below).

Unlike Nostrum, Chaldean’s professionalism looks to be one of his biggest assets, showing both an excellent turn of foot and a willing attitude on Town Moor which should continue to stand him in good stead.

O’Brien and Appleby battalions at the ready

Chaldean’s trainer Andrew Balding will be seeking his first success in the Dewhurst and among those standing in his way will be Aidan O’Brien and Charlie Appleby, who have won six of the last seven renewals between them.

O’Brien has three horses to choose from as he seeks a record-equalling eighth victory in Britain’s pre-eminent two-year-old race.

They include Auguste Rodin, who again looked a colt with lots more to offer when winning a Group Two at Leopardstown last time, but perhaps more likely to run is Aesop’s Fables, who appeared to find the testing conditions against him when losing his unbeaten record in the National Stakes at the Curragh on the same weekend.

Meanwhile, Naval Power will be the Godolphin representative in this year’s Dewhurst, spearheading another strong team for Appleby at this meeting as he tries to extend his lead over William Haggas in the trainers’ championship.

It was on this weekend last year that Appleby really turned the screw on title rival Andrew Balding by completing a clean sweep of the three pattern races for two-year-olds on Saturday’s card, pocketing over £370,000 in prize money in the space of around 75 minutes.

Not only did he win the Dewhurst with Native Trail, who justified odds-on favouritism with the minimum of fuss, but he also saddled two of the first three home in the Zetland Stakes and the impressive winner of the Autumn Stakes in Coroebus.

It might be asking a lot to expect Appleby to complete the treble again this year, particularly with his best two-year-old (Noble Style) on the sidelines, but a quick glance at his entries on Saturday tells you that he is unlikely to leave the Rowley Mile empty-handed.

Naval Power remains with lots of potential

Naval Power is certainly an able deputy in the Dewhurst and now a general 3/1 chance to give Appleby a third win in the race in the last four years.

Admittedly, Naval Power has a rather different profile to Appleby’s two previous winners, Pinatubo and Native Trail, both of whom were sent off at very short odds having already impressed at the top level in the National Stakes.

Their superiority over their contemporaries was already so well established that they didn’t actually need to improve to win the Dewhurst, just doing what was necessary on the day to keep their unbeaten records intact.

Naval Power, on the other hand, still has a bit to find to get to the level of Sakheer and Chaldean, perhaps even Nostrum, though he hasn’t yet had the opportunity to test the waters in Group company like that trio.

Unbeaten in four starts, he has certainly done everything asked of him so far and the way he has shaped in winning Listed races the last twice – including an impressive six-and-a-half-length victory at Ascot in July (replay below) – suggests he is sure to have a bigger effort in the locker when the situation demands it.

Like Nostrum, Naval Power appeals as the type who could really develop into a force to be reckoned with next year, particularly when stepping up to middle-distances. A tall colt, he has already won over a mile and his sire Teofilo, who won the Dewhurst back in 2006, typically produces horse who benefit from time and distance.

Similar comments with regards trip apply to Flying Honours, who will try to get the ball rolling for Appleby in the Godolphin Flying Start Zetland Stakes (13:50) which kicks off the action on Saturday, the only Group race for two-year-olds in Britain run over further than a mile.

Flying Honours proved a disappointment when finishing only third in the Royal Lodge Stakes at this course last time, though the way that race was run probably didn’t see him to best effect, simply lacking a change of gear late on in what was essentially a two-furlong sprint for home (replay below).

By Sea The Stars and out of Powder Snow, a Group Three winner over a mile and a quarter in France, his pedigree screams middle-distances and it will be no surprise if he leaves that form behind now stepping up to a mile and a quarter.

Autumn always an informative heat

Flying Honours is also entered in the Emirates Autumn Stakes (14:25), but Appleby is seemingly more likely to run Local Dynasty and Silver Knott as he seeks a fourth win in this Group Three since 2017.

The previous winners from Moulton Paddocks include Ghaiyyath, who developed into a top-class middle-distance performer later in his career, while last year’s winner Coroebus reappeared this season with a convincing defeat of stable companion Native Trail in the 2000 Guineas, a one-two which certainly kicked off Appleby’s trainers’ championship defence with a bang.

Lope de Vega colt Silver Knott looked a colt with classic aspirations of his own when winning the Solario Stakes at Sandown in August (replay below), drawing clear in the final furlong to win by three and a quarter lengths, and he was seemingly unsuited by the soft going when he trailed in last of the three runners behind Chaldean in the Champagne at Doncaster last time.

Back on a sounder surface this weekend, Silver Knott will relish the step up to a mile and his turn of foot could well prove decisive against a horse like Local Dynasty, who looked a thorough stayer when making it two from three in a novice event at Sandown last time.

As for the horse who could emerge as the chief threat to Silver Knott in the Autumn, it’s worth finishing this article where we started it, with a colt by Kingman who remains firmly in the ‘could-be-anything’ category having been out of action since making a winning debut at the July Festival.

The horse in question is the Gosden-trained Epictetus who, much like stablemate Commissioning, has been given plenty of time since making such a promising start to his career, asserting late on under just hands-and-heels riding to win by a length and a quarter (replay at the bottom of the page).

Flying Honours was just one of several subsequent winners who finished behind him there and the way that form has worked out in his absence since suggests Epictetus could well have what it takes to establish himself as another classic contender for his sire heading into next year.

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