Matt Brocklebank previews the big betting races at Newmarket and Ascot this weekend and has three value bets to consider.
Value Bet Tips: Saturday October 1
1pt wins Kings Joy in 1.31 Newmarket at 14/1 (General)
1pt win Ainsdale in 1.51 Ascot at 8/1 (Overall)
1pt wins Asjad in 3.36 Ascot at 14/1 (bet365, Coral)
Sky Bet Odds | power of rice | Betfair sports betting
Some good betting races to contend with at two of Britain’s main tracks this Saturday and although the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes are unlikely to be one of them, Newmarket’s EBF Premier Fillies UK Handicap opener is in shape attractive.
Al Husn may have her quirks, but she’s the clear favourite, coming in at just 6lbs for a relatively straightforward hit (she flashed her tail in her Kempton win last year) here on the Rowley Mile ago two weeks. Her proven ability to handle the track is a big plus and she has always hinted that a step up to 10 furlongs might be within her reach.
Persist and Crystal Estrella have already won over distance, but at a higher price I’ll take a chance on another who’s tackling a mile and a quarter for the first time – namely John and Thady Gosden. JOY OF KINGS.
She had a wide draw at Goodwood last time out and was lit after being forced to run three before the first corner, so I can forgive her slightly weak finishing effort in sixth behind Crystal Caprice, who earned another handicap and finished third in Listed Company since.
Prior to Goodwood, Kings Joy had appeared to be claiming more of an endurance test on two one-mile outings at Ascot, including the Sandringham at the Royal meeting where the ground was undoubtedly on the fast side for her too.
She’s apparently much better drawn here in stall 1, had some time off, which hopefully helped her develop a bit more physically, and she got a helping hand from the handicapper who dropped her another 1 pound to a mark of 86. She was beaten a nose of 85 at Kempton in June and could be on the verge of thriving for her in-form stable now granted the longer trip.
There’s certainly a decent case to be made for Gosden-trained Laurel in the aforementioned Sun Chariot as well, but considering she’s the lowest-rated horse in the roster, it’s not like Kingman’s undefeated daughter was missing in the bets. the rating 6/1.
Therefore, I will be looking to Ascot for the remainder of Saturday’s betting and the heavy rain expected on Friday evening should leave ideal conditions for AINSDALE returning from a month off in the Oakman Inns Rous Stakes.
It seems like a good time for him to resume too, not only because of the forecast, but the Julie Camacho yard has sent out a handful of winners over the past two weeks and presumably this son of Mayson is doing well at home.
He is yet to win at Listed level, but has run some fantastic races with the group for former trainer Karl Burke, including when he was beaten by a neck in last year’s Temple Stakes at Haydock.
Limited to just two races for Camacho this season due to busy ground most of the year, he finished fourth in the Chipchase won by Sense Of Duty at Newcastle in June and, after 63 days out, ran well at get off the pace on good ground in the Beverley Bullet when last seen.
He can get back on that form over those five steep furlongs and it’s definitely a case of rain, the better.
Hamish should win Cumberland Lodge if his scuffle with Kyprios hasn’t left a mark and Rohaan holds exceptional form claims in the Bengough Stakes, another group race I’ll happily skip when it comes to parting ways with my silver.
The Peroni Nastro Azzuro Challenge Cup is a good betting series, though, and I’m surprised to see ASJAD and Mums Tipple at such high prices after filling the top two places in a handicap of six and a half furlongs on soft ground at the Leger meeting of Doncaster.
I was counting my money for a while as Mums Tipple (shown on these pages) seemed to have been delivered on time, only for Asjad to arrive late and finally earn a shade comfortably (replay below).
James Horton’s horse (bought from Shadwell for 80,000 guineas) had looked very promising earlier in the year when there was still juice in the ground (won at Redcar and York) and he clearly strayed on faster ground when he was on the pitch in the Wokingham and International Stakes here.
Watch the race replay
Unlimited race replays from all over the UK and Ireland races
Access to exclusive features for FREE – No monthly subscription fees
Log in with your existing Sporting Life, Sky Bet or Sky Games account. If you don’t have any, it’s completely FREE to register!
Obviously back on pace and up just 3 pounds for the latest win, the decision to skip the Ayr Gold Cup and come here over seven furlongs may well pay off, although apparently there’s enough to be found with Fresh since their last meeting at the International in July.
The draw (12) looks to have been a good one as the stands are on the stands side, although Asjad is tactically versatile and likely won’t be played until quite late so Stevie Donohoe should be able to chart the best path to through.
Posted at 1500 BST on 30/09/22
More from Sporting Life
safer game
We are committed to supporting safer gaming. Recommended bets are advised for those over 18 and we strongly encourage readers to bet only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare enabled 0808 8020 133.
You can find help and additional information at begambleaware.org and gamingtherapy.org.
#bets #Newmarket #Ascot
