The electricity supply is going to come under greater pressure than previously thought this winter, creating growing fears of blackouts.
Higher demand and the loss of another power plant means that “system alerts” – a signal that immediate action is needed to avoid outages – will increase.
“There is no doubt that the current outlook, based on the best information available, is serious,” says EirGrid, which is in charge of the national power grid.
“It is likely that in the coming years we will experience system alerts and need to work proactively to mitigate the risk of more severe impacts.”
The warning comes as EirGrid revises up its forecast for expected electricity demand for the coming years.
It says the country will most likely need 37% more electricity by 2031, although it could be as much as 50% more.
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Environment and Climate Minister Eamon Ryan. Photo: PA/Brian Lawless
When the same exercise was carried out at the same time last year, an increase of 28 to 43% was expected.
Data centers and other large energy-consuming industries are expected to account for 28% of all electricity demand in the country by 2031.
The outlook for the future is contained in EirGrid’s annual Generation Capability Statement (GCS) released today, which warns of a “challenging outlook” over the next 10 years.
Mark Foley, Managing Director of EirGrid, said: “Since 2016, the GCS has warned of growing tension between demand and supply.
“This year’s GCS predicts significant capacity shortfalls over the next few years with increasing tightness between supply and demand.
“The number of system alerts will increase as our economy grows, electricity generators leave the market and demand increases, with significant new additional demand from the heat and transport sectors as they are electrified.
Controlling electricity demand would also be necessary, especially during peak hours when demand is highest.
The outlook was already difficult after a number of “generation capacity” contracts – new or expanded power plants capable of increasing the total amount of electricity produced in the country – fell through last year.
New contracts have been signed but will take time to build and become operational.
Meanwhile, three of four oil-fired generator sets at SSE-owned Tarbert Power Station in County Kerry, which were due to be retired in the coming years, have been shut down prematurely after recurring technical problems .
A surge in additional data center demand, described as “very strong” and above previous forecasts, is expected by the end of 2024.
This will come from data centers already in development that have power grid connection agreements.
Late last year, the energy regulator advised EirGrid to impose restrictions on new data center network applicants by requiring them to supply their own power or only allowing them to connect online. outside Dublin in places where there was locally available capacity.
This policy was enforced, EirGrid said. “This makes new data centers ‘zero net demand’ from a GCS adequacy perspective.”
However, further supply pressures will come from the general expansion of the population and the economy, as well as the growth of electric vehicles and heat pumps, which are expected to take off significantly from 2025.
EirGrid said it was essential that more new generation capacity was ordered and that while the longer-term aim was to increase wind and solar power, new gas-fired power stations would continue to be needed. in the meantime.
To avoid more immediate difficulties, it would be necessary to extend the life of old plants beyond their planned retirement date.
Controlling electricity demand would also be necessary, especially during peak hours when demand is highest.
EirGrid said action taken by the energy regulator last week to increase peak charges would help.
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